The Approach

August 25, 2019 12:16 pm Published by

The proprietary algorithm used here at EdgeoMatic.com began as a method for projecting player performances for winning in fantasy football.

After years of success in that area, our team began to make adjustments to the algorithm to predict NFL game outcomes for the purposes of betting against the spread.

In beta testing, we concentrated on the NFL playoffs in 2015, 2016 and 2017. We were surprised by the accuracy of the projections, especially after out BETA in 2107 actually beat the projections form industry-leading FiveThirtyEight.com ELO and MicroSoft Cortana

We decided we would move our BETA into production for the entire 2018-2019 NFL season.

Here are the results.

Betting on EVERY one of the 238 regular season games yielded 128 wins against the spread (ATS) for 54%.

For some perspective, only about 1/3 of the pros on Bettingpros.com submitted predictions for EVERY game in 2018. Of those, the best winning rate ATS was 56%. Our picks would have finished in the top 5 of that group.

While this just edges out the “juice” as winning the season, it did not meet our goal. It was clear that we were looking for a system to tell us which games to bet and give us correct outcomes, not a system to bet EVERY game.

So we created a way to “short list” our bets so we could pick certain games based on conditions that the algorithm indicates would be ideal for betting.

We came up with FOUR different proprietary methodologies with escalating levels of confidence.

We broke those four tiers into “UNITS” that represent different levels of wagers that correlate with the confidence of each pick.

0.25 Units

   
  W L Win% Profit Profit Per Game
  55 34 62% 16.00 0.18

This group of games produced the most potential bets in the 2018 season. The 89  short list games met a combination of criteria that fell just short of our highest confidence bets. Yet of those games, 55 were winners with a profit of 16. 

For some perspective, of the 142 experts logged on BettingPros.com in 2018, the most accurate was 62%.Our minimum confidence bets would have been in a three way tie for most accurate in 2018. 

0.50 Units

   
  W L Win% Profit Profit Per Game
  28 13 68% 12.45 0.30

This next group of games produced the second most potential bets in the 2018 season. The 42 short list games met a combination of criteria that fell just short of our highest confidence bets. Yet of those games, 28 were winners with a profit of 12.45. 

For some perspective, of the 142 experts logged on BettingPros.com in 2018, the most accurate was 62%.Our second minimum confidence bets would have been in the most accurate in 2018 by 6% over any expert. Our system would have even been more accurate ATS than any expert picking just winners.

1.00 Units

 
  W L Win% Profit Profit Per Game
  12 3 80% 7.91 0.53

This  group of games produced the second least potential bets in the 2018 season. The 15 short list games met a combination of criteria that fell just short of our highest confidence bets. Yet of those games, 12 were winners with a profit of 7.91. 

For some perspective, of the 142 experts logged on BettingPros.com in 2018, the most accurate was 62%. Our second minimum confidence bets would have been in the most accurate in 2018 by 18% over any expert. Our system would have even been more accurate ATS than any expert picking just winners.

1.50 Units

   
  W L Win% Profit Profit Per Game
  4 1 80% 2.64 0.53

This  group of games produced the least potential bets in the 2018 season, but also represents our “locks“. The 5 short list games met a combination of criteria represented our highest confidence bets. Of those games, 4 were winners with a profit of 2.64. 

For some perspective, of the 142 experts logged on BettingPros.com in 2018, the most accurate was 62%. Our second minimum confidence bets would have been in the most accurate in 2018 by 18% over any expert. Our system would have even been more accurate ATS than any expert picking just winners.

So what about 2019?

Well, that is what we created EdgeoMatic.com. We wanted to concentrate on helping you win your fantasy leagues at FantasyoMatic.com so we created a sister site for just NFL betting.

We will post all our predictions on BettingPros.com so you can track our accuracy.

We will also have them all here with full transparency of outcomes along with examples of how much you would have won if you bet each our our short lists.

ALL bets will be posted here while the short list options will be fee based. We will likely be having all bets open without fee for the first couple weeks.